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How many Trump Cabinet members will leave? on Kalshi
If the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave is at least 9 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, White House, Bloomberg, Axios, Politico, Reuters, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
67% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 67¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.15 | 68.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 7 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 7 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 477 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 8 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 8 | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 277 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 6 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 6 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 210 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 1 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 1 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 200 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 3 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 177 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 5 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 5 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 10 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 2 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 2 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 9 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 9 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 4 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 4 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 3 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 3 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 2 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 2 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 13 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 13 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 12 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 12 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 11 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 11 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 10 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028? · At least 10 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 5 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 5 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Cabinet members who leave or announce they will leave be at least 4 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 4 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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