What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.49.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 0% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

How many House seats will Democrats win in California? on Kalshi

If the Democratic party has won exactly 49 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official electoral commission or electoral authority responsible for <election>.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Democrats win exactly 48 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · 48	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	3%	25,983	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win exactly 46 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · 46	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	14,548	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win exactly 47 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · 47	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,845	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win exactly 45 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · 45	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	7,109	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win exactly 44 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · 44	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	7,064	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win exactly 49 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · 49	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	5,908	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win above 49 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · 50 and above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	4,186	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win below 44 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in California? · Below 44	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	3,659	Nov 03, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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