Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Number of BoC rate cuts in [year]? on Kalshi
If the number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 0ㅤ? · Exactly 0ㅤ | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 15,306 | Jan 01, 03:28 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 1ㅤ? · Exactly 1ㅤ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,785 | Jan 01, 03:28 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 2ㅤ? · Exactly 2ㅤ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,882 | Jan 01, 03:28 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be at least 5ㅤ? · 5 or moreㅤ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,194 | Jan 01, 03:28 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 4ㅤ? · Exactly 4ㅤ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 525 | Jan 01, 03:28 UTC |
| Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 3ㅤ? · Exactly 3ㅤ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 400 | Jan 01, 03:28 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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