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California Proposition 42 vs. Proposition 40 Yes votes on Kalshi
If the difference between the number of Yes votes for California Proposition 42 and the number of Yes votes for California Proposition 40 is above 0 as measured in the November 3, 2026 California general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: California Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
97%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 97¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $0.11 | 97.2% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the difference between the number of Yes votes for Proposition 42 and the number of Yes votes for Proposition 40 be above 0 votes in the November 3, 2026 California general election? · Yes | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,986 | Dec 11, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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