Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Casino Ad Spend on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Casino Ad Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 94.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 94.5 ? · Above 94.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 17,066 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 68.5 ? · Above 68.5 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,562 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 59.5 ? · Above 59.5 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 1,479 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 80 ? · Above 80 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,330 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 73.5 ? · Above 73.5 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,253 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 55 ? · Above 55 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 200 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 46.5 ? · Above 46.5 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Casino Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 64 ? · Above 64 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.