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Will a court block California's under-16 social media law? on Kalshi
If any federal or state court issues a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or judgment that enjoins enforcement of all or part of California Assembly Bill 1709, signed September 10, 2026 in a case challenging California Assembly Bill 1709, including Meta Platforms, Inc. v. Bonta, No. 3:26-cv-13201 (N.D. Cal.), Google LLC v. Bonta, No. 5:26-cv-13204 (N.D. Cal.), and TikTok Inc. v. Bonta, No. 2:26-cv-12965 (C.D. Cal.) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CourtListener, PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records), the Associated Press, Reuters.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a court block California's under-16 feed law in 2026? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.