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College Football Unranked Upsets on Kalshi
If at least 5 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 12 of the 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN, AP College Football Rankings.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will at least 5 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 12 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 5+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 4 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 12 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 4+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 3 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 12 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 3+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 2 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 12 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 2+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 1 unranked team win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 12 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 1+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 5 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 11 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 5+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 4 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 11 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 4+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 3 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 11 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 3+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 2 unranked teams win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 11 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 2+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
| Will at least 1 unranked team win against an AP Top 25 team in Week 11 of the 2026-27 college football season? · 1+ unranked wins over Top 25 teams | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 23, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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