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Chess Tournament Winner on Kalshi
If Zurab Sturua wins the 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 65+ chess tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Chess.com, FIDE, Grand Chess Tour.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 436 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament: Magnus Carlsen wins · Magnus Carlsen | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1,967 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will TammerSh win the 2027 Finnish Championship League chess tournament? · TammerSh | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1,282 | Mar 22, 02:00 UTC |
| 2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament: Wesley So wins · Wesley So | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 694 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Pavel Kotsur wins · Pavel Kotsur | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 527 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Women 65+ chess tournament: Galina Strutinskaia wins · Galina Strutinskaia | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 411 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Women 50+ chess tournament: Inga Khurtsilava wins · Inga Khurtsilava | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 400 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| Will Aatos win the 2027 Finnish Championship League chess tournament? · Aatos | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 382 | Mar 22, 02:00 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Vladimir Magai wins · Vladimir Magai | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 317 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Women 50+ chess tournament: Monica Calzetta Ruiz wins · Monica Calzetta Ruiz | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 313 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Murtas Kazhgaleyev wins · Murtas Kazhgaleyev | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 303 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Kiril Georgiev wins · Kiril Georgiev | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 299 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament: Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu wins · Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 214 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament: Nodirbek Abdusattorov wins · Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 212 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 65+ chess tournament: Zurab Sturua wins · Zurab Sturua | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 200 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 65+ chess tournament: Rainer Knaak wins · Rainer Knaak | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 200 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 65+ chess tournament: Keith C Arkell wins · Keith C Arkell | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 200 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 65+ chess tournament: Branko Damljanovic wins · Branko Damljanovic | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 200 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament: Fabiano Caruana wins · Fabiano Caruana | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 180 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Total Chess World Championship Tour Pilot chess tournament: Arjun Erigaisi wins · Arjun Erigaisi | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 134 | Nov 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will MatSK win the 2027 Finnish Championship League chess tournament? · MatSK | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 41 | Mar 22, 02:00 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Women 50+ chess tournament: Pia Cramling wins · Pia Cramling | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 25 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 65+ chess tournament: Klaus Bischoff wins · Klaus Bischoff | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 24 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Henrik Danielsen wins · Henrik Danielsen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 17 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Victor Mikhalevski wins · Victor Mikhalevski | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Vladimir Burmakin wins · Vladimir Burmakin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Vladimir Jr. Bukal wins · Vladimir Jr. Bukal | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Suat Atalik wins · Suat Atalik | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Ramil Hasangatin wins · Ramil Hasangatin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Petr Kostenko wins · Petr Kostenko | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Mikheil Kekelidze wins · Mikheil Kekelidze | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Jean-Marc Degraeve wins · Jean-Marc Degraeve | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Hannes Stefansson wins · Hannes Stefansson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Evgeny E. Vorobiov wins · Evgeny E. Vorobiov | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Darcy Lima wins · Darcy Lima | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Dragisa Blagojevic wins · Dragisa Blagojevic | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Arnd Lauber wins · Arnd Lauber | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| 2026 FIDE World Senior Championship Open 50+ chess tournament: Aleksander Delchev wins · Aleksander Delchev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 15 | Nov 21, 20:30 UTC |
| Will TuTS win the 2027 Finnish Championship League chess tournament? · TuTS | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15 | Mar 22, 02:00 UTC |
| Will HSK win the 2027 Finnish Championship League chess tournament? · HSK | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15 | Mar 22, 02:00 UTC |
| Will HSC win the 2027 Finnish Championship League chess tournament? · HSC | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 15 | Mar 22, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 436 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.