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World Chess Champion on Kalshi
If Andrey Esipenko wins the World Chess Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Hikaru Nakamura win the World Chess Championship? · Hikaru Nakamura | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 850,795 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the World Chess Championship? · Javokhir Sindarov | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 415,767 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Gukesh Dommaraju win the World Chess Championship? · Gukesh Dommaraju | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 308,175 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anish Giri win the World Chess Championship? · Anish Giri | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 261,633 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Fabiano Caruana win the World Chess Championship? · Fabiano Caruana | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 241,607 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the World Chess Championship? · Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 146,218 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the World Chess Championship? · Andrey Esipenko | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 141,614 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wei Yi win the World Chess Championship? · Wei Yi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 59,620 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the World Chess Championship? · Matthias Bluebaum | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 53,144 | Dec 30, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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