What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 36¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.22.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 38% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 36%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will China abolish birth limits? on Kalshi

If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, The Guardian, BBC News, France 24 English, NHK World-Japan, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, NBC News, The Times of India, CBS News, ABC News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Financial Times, CNN, ABC News Australia, The New York Times, The Globe and Mail, Al Jazeera English, the Associated Press, Reuters, The South China Morning Post, Politico, Channel NewsAsia.

Market says (typical open contract)

36%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

73% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
36¢ (now)	1.6¢	$2.24	37.6%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2030? · Before 2030	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	87%	2,442	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2029? · Before 2029	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	689	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2027? · Before 2027	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	415	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2028? · Before 2028	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	314	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.