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China strategic oil inventories on Kalshi
If the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 were above 1,600 million barrels, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 be above 1,600 million barrels? · Above 1,600 million barrels | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,367 | Nov 10, 16:59 UTC |
| Will China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 be above 1,500 million barrels? · Above 1,500 million barrels | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 789 | Nov 10, 16:59 UTC |
| Will China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 be above 1,400 million barrels? · Above 1,400 million barrels | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 108 | Nov 10, 16:59 UTC |
| Will China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 be above 1,450 million barrels? · Above 1,450 million barrels | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 48 | Nov 10, 16:59 UTC |
| Will China’s strategic oil inventories for Q3 2026 be above 1,550 million barrels? · Above 1,550 million barrels | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 4 | Nov 10, 16:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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