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Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs? on Kalshi
If the U.S. Court of International Trade issues a written ruling that holds unlawful, vacates, sets aside, or enjoins collection of the 10%–12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, in whole or in part, as to any party in any case challenging the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs imposed effective July 24, 2026, including Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. United States and New York v. United States, No. 26-03467, or any consolidation or recaptioning thereof before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CourtListener, Westlaw, ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, Law360, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, PACER, CBS, NBC, Justia, LexisNexis, Bloomberg Law, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Court News Service, Politico.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. Court of International Trade rule issues a written ruling that holds unlawful, vacates, sets aside, or enjoins collection of the 10%–12.5% Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, in whole or in part, as to any party? · Before 2027 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 8,901 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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