What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

closest senate race on Kalshi

If Mississippi has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CBS News, Fox News, official state or local election division websites, ABC, The Washington Post, Reuters, Ballotpedia, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, official government websites of the relevant jurisdictions, Politico, NBC News, the Associated Press, The New York Times, Bloomberg News, FiveThirtyEight.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Alaska	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	330,254	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Mississippi have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Mississippi	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	321,155	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Iowa	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	296,629	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Kansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Kansas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	263,468	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Texas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	218,777	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Louisiana have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Louisiana	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	202,270	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will South Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · South Carolina	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	195,959	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Michigan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	195,786	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Maine	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	179,214	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nebraska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Nebraska	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	171,065	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Ohio	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	161,931	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Florida	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	159,374	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Georgia	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	131,665	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Montana have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Montana	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	123,982	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Minnesota	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	119,653	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will North Carolina have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · North Carolina	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	117,981	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · New Hampshire	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	92,666	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will South Dakota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · South Dakota	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	89,201	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Idaho have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Idaho	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	59,261	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Arkansas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections? · Arkansas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	57,949	Jan 03, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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