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CNN Air Force One court order on Kalshi

If any federal or state court issues a written temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, stay, or vacatur whose operative terms require the White House to let CNN's journalists or crews travel on Air Force One in a case concerning the White House's exclusion of CNN from Air Force One before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CourtListener, PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records), U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
73% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
36¢ (now)1.6¢$2.2437.6%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will a court order CNN back on Air Force One before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 202736¢36%1.6¢—73%481Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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