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Coachella line up on Kalshi
If Zach Bryan is announced as part of the initial lineup of Coachella 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 112 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Don Toliver be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Don Toliver | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zach Bryan be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Zach Bryan | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · YoungBoy Never Broke Again | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Yachty be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Lil Yachty | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charli xcx be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Charli xcx | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · The Weeknd | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Wayne be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Lil Wayne | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Uzi Vert be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Lil Uzi Vert | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will USHER be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · USHER | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyla be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Tyla | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyga be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Tyga | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trippie Redd be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Trippie Redd | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Travis Scott | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Timberlake be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Justin Timberlake | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Young Thug be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Young Thug | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Taylor Swift | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Tate McRae | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SZA be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · SZA | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Swae Lee be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Swae Lee | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stray Kids be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Stray Kids | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will sombr be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · sombr | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sia be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Sia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shawn Mendes be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Shawn Mendes | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shaboozey be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Shaboozey | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Smith be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Sam Smith | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Sabrina Carpenter | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rauw Alejandro be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Rauw Alejandro | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will ROSALÍA be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · ROSALÍA | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Roddy Ricch be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Roddy Ricch | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Rihanna | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Quavo be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Quavo | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Post Malone be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Post Malone | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Polo G be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Polo G | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PinkPantheress be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · PinkPantheress | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pharrell Williams be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Pharrell Williams | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lil Peep be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Lil Peep | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will PARTYNEXTDOOR be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · PARTYNEXTDOOR | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ozuna be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Ozuna | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Dean be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Olivia Dean | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Offset be part of the lineup for Coachella in 2028? · Offset | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 112 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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