What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.84.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 49% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Baseball Managers Out on Kalshi

If the Manager of the Atlanta Pro Baseball team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, CBS Sports, ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

95% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
48¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.82	49.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Tony Vitello	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	9,762	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Torey Lovullo	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	7,645	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Joe Espada	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	5,119	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Craig Counsell	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	3,541	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Aaron Boone	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	2,743	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Dave Roberts	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	2,365	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Matt Quatraro	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	2,293	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Blake Butera	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	1,770	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · A.J. Hinch	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	1,384	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Will Venable	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	1,370	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Pat Murphy	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,045	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Oliver Marmol	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	736	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Warren Schaeffer	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	655	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · John Schneider	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	629	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Mark Kotsay	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	557	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Clayton McCullough	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	468	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Stephen Vogt	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	453	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Kevin Cash	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	155	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Craig Albernaz	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	108	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Walt Weiss	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	93%	53	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Terry Francona	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	26	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Craig Stammen	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	25	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Skip Schumaker	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Derek Shelton	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026? · Don Kelly	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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