What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.01.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 44% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA Coach Out Date on Kalshi

If the Head Coach of the Philadelphia Pro Basketball team leaves, or announces they will leave, after issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League, The Athletic, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, NBC Sports, New York Times, CBS Sports, AP, Reuters, The Washington Post.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

85% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Mike Brown be out before Oct 25, 2027? · Out before Oct 25, 2027	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	10,408	Oct 25, 03:59 UTC
Will Mike Brown be out before Jul 1, 2027? · Out before Jul 1, 2027	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	89%	7,226	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Steve Kerr be out before Oct 25, 2027? · Out before Oct 25, 2027	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	3,828	Oct 25, 03:59 UTC
Will Nick Nurse be out before Feb 12, 2027? · Out before Feb 12, 2027	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	3,177	Feb 12, 04:59 UTC
Will Steve Kerr be out before Jul 1, 2027? · Out before Jul 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	2,603	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Nick Nurse be out before Jul 1, 2027? · Out before Jul 1, 2027	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	85%	1,117	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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