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CONCACAF Nations League on Kalshi
If Virgin Islands, U.S. is the 2026-27 CONCACAF Nations League C champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 41 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
68% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Mexico | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 27,467 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will USA win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · USA | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 9,427 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Guatemala win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Guatemala | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,236 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Canada win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Canada | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 2,253 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Haiti win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Haiti | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,583 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Honduras win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Honduras | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,059 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Curacao win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Curacao | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 634 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Panama win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Panama | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 442 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jamaica win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Jamaica | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 390 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cuba win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Cuba | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 336 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Suriname win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Suriname | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 215 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Saint Lucia win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Saint Lucia | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 57 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Costa Rica win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Costa Rica | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 55 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will El Salvador win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · El Salvador | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dominican Republic win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Dominican Republic | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Antigua and Barbuda win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Antigua and Barbuda | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 11 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Saint Kitts and Nevis win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Saint Kitts and Nevis | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 3 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Anguilla win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Anguilla | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 2 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virgin Islands, U.S. win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Virgin Islands, U.S. | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Turks and Caicos Islands win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Turks and Caicos Islands | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Saint-Martin win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Saint-Martin | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Montserrat win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Montserrat | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Virgin Islands, British win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Virgin Islands, British | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bahamas win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Bahamas | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aruba win the CONCACAF Nations League C? · Aruba | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Saint Vincent and the Grenadines win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sint Maarten win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Sint Maarten | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Puerto Rico win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Puerto Rico | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Guyana win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Guyana | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Grenada win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Grenada | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Guadeloupe win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Guadeloupe | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will French Guiana win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · French Guiana | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dominica win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Dominica | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cayman Islands win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Cayman Islands | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bonaire win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Bonaire | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bermuda win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Bermuda | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Belize win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Belize | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Barbados win the CONCACAF Nations League B? · Barbados | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Trinidad and Tobago win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Trinidad and Tobago | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nicaragua win the CONCACAF Nations League A? · Nicaragua | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Apr 15, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 41 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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