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Congress trades on Kalshi
If Susan Collins is the person in Congress that has the highest return on their assets in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Nancy Pelosi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 11,023 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · David Kustoff | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,204 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Larry Bucshon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,227 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · David Rouzer | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1,826 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Debbie Wasserman-Schultz | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1,262 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Susan Collins | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,003 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Ron Wyden | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 989 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Roger Williams | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 715 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Morgan McGarvey | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 628 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? · Pete Sessions | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 563 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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