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Copa Del Rey Spread on Kalshi
If Valencia wins by more than 2.5 goals in the UE Tavernes vs Valencia professional Copa del Rey soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Valencia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 334 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Jaen wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Jaen wins by more than 1.5 goals | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 184 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Valencia wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Valencia wins by more than 1.5 goals | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 110 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| UE Tavernes wins by more than 1.5 goals? · UE Tavernes wins by more than 1.5 goals | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 80 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Leganes wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Leganes wins by more than 1.5 goals | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 14 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| UE Tavernes wins by more than 2.5 goals? · UE Tavernes wins by more than 2.5 goals | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Alcoron wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Alcoron wins by more than 2.5 goals | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Alcoron wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Alcoron wins by more than 1.5 goals | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Leganes wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Leganes wins by more than 2.5 goals | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Mijas wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Mijas wins by more than 2.5 goals | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Mijas wins by more than 1.5 goals? · Mijas wins by more than 1.5 goals | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Jaen wins by more than 2.5 goals? · Jaen wins by more than 2.5 goals | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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