What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 60¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.38.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 62% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 60%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Costco KPI on Kalshi

If Costco Wholesale Corporation reports Above 152800000 total cardholders in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

60%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

79% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
60¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.40	61.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 152.2 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 152.2 million	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	600	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 150.8 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 150.8 million	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	370	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 151.2 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 151.2 million	74¢	74%	1.3¢	—	51%	305	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 152 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 152 million	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	300	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 152.8 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 152.8 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	200	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 151.8 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 151.8 million	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	200	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 151 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 151 million	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	27%	200	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 151.6 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 151.6 million	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	0	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 151.4 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 151.4 million	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	79%	0	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report Above 150.6 million total cardholders in Q1 2027? · Above 150.6 million	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Apr 09, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.