What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 70¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.05.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 71% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 70%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Companies

Costco Annual KPI on Kalshi

If Costco Wholesale Corporation reports above 159000000 total cardholders in fiscal 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

70%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

60% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢ (now)	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 159 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 159 million	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 158 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 158 million	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 157 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 157 million	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 156 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 156 million	45¢	45%	1.7¢	—	90%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 155 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 155 million	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	60%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 154 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 154 million	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 153 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 153 million	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	7%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 152 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 152 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC
Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 151 million total cardholders in fiscal 2027? · Above 151 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	Dec 22, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.