What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.24.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 8% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

CPI on Kalshi

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.3% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

15% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.22	8.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in October 2026? · Above 0.1%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	396,805	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026? · Above 0.2%	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	94%	345,895	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in October 2026? · Above 0.3%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	309,273	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in October 2026? · Above 0.4%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	147,484	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in October 2026? · Above 0.0%	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	96,906	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026? · Above -0.1%	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	52,218	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026? · Above 0.5%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	41,724	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in November 2026? · Above 0.1%	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	39,816	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in November 2026? · Above -0.1%	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	83%	29,199	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026? · Above 0.2%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	28,279	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026? · Above 0.0%	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	26,924	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026? · Above 0.4%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	23,102	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in December 2026? · Above 0.8%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	20,986	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in November 2026? · Above 0.3%	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	20,351	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.8% in October 2026? · Above 0.8%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	18,318	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in October 2026? · Above 0.6%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	18,145	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 1.0% in October 2026? · Above 1.0%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	18,085	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in November 2026? · Above 0.5%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	17,124	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in December 2026? · Above 0.0%	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	15,011	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in December 2026? · Above 0.4%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	14,201	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in December 2026? · Above -0.1%	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	13,962	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in December 2026? · Above 0.5%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	13,514	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in December 2026? · Above 0.6%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	13,395	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in December 2026? · Above 0.7%	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	13,166	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in December 2026? · Above 0.9%	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	12,557	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.9% in October 2026? · Above 0.9%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,223	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in December 2026? · Above 0.3%	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	8,869	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.7% in October 2026? · Above 0.7%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,808	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in December 2026? · Above 0.2%	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	5,733	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in December 2026? · Above 0.1%	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	81%	5,023	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in November 2026? · Above -0.2%	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	2,011	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI rise more than -0.3% in November 2026? · Above -0.3%	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	495	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.