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Critics Choice Award for Best Limited Series Actress on Kalshi
If Tessa Thompson has won Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Critics Choice Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elisabeth Moss win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Elisabeth Moss | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 38,712 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florence Pugh win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Florence Pugh | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 5,754 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carey Mulligan win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Carey Mulligan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,653 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sarah Pidgeon win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Sarah Pidgeon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,643 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sally Field win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Sally Field | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1,197 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,063 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anya Taylor-Joy win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Anya Taylor-Joy | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 753 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amy Adams win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Amy Adams | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 753 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dove Cameron win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Dove Cameron | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 743 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Summer H. Howell win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Summer H. Howell | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 738 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rachel Weisz win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Rachel Weisz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 738 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ella Bruccoleri win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Ella Bruccoleri | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 738 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Camila Morrone win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Camila Morrone | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 738 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kerry Washington win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Kerry Washington | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 737 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tessa Thompson win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Tessa Thompson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 736 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kaley Cuoco win Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards? · Kaley Cuoco | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 732 | Jan 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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