Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Cuenca mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If Yaku Pérez wins the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Electoral Council of Ecuador.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Juan Carlos Vega win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Juan Carlos Vega | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yaku Pérez win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Yaku Pérez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pedro Palacios win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Pedro Palacios | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paúl Carrasco win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Paúl Carrasco | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Marcelo Cabrera win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Marcelo Cabrera | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Leonardo Morales win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Leonardo Morales | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Juan Pablo Riquetti win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Juan Pablo Riquetti | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Juan Cristóbal Lloret win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Juan Cristóbal Lloret | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Diana Mera win the 2026 Cuenca mayoral election? · Diana Mera | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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