What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.82.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 21% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Companies

Carvana Annual KPI on Kalshi

If Carvana Co. reports Above 910000 retail vehicle unit sales in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

39% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.80	21.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Carvana Co. report Above 900 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 900 thousand	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,667	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 910 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 910 thousand	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,375	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 840 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 840 thousand	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	2,705	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 890 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 890 thousand	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	1,632	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 800 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 800 thousand	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	1,364	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 820 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 820 thousand	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	1,244	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 810 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 810 thousand	89¢	89%	0.7¢	—	22%	1,219	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 830 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 830 thousand	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	62%	822	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 850 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 850 thousand	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	524	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 780 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 780 thousand	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	515	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 880 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 880 thousand	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	300	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 790 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 790 thousand	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	147	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 870 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 870 thousand	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	6	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will Carvana Co. report Above 860 thousand retail vehicle unit sales in 2026? · Above 860 thousand	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.