What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 22¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.71.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 24% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 22%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Databricks IPO on Kalshi

If Databricks confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, Reuters, BBC.

Market says (typical open contract)

22%

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

45% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
23¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.70	24.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Dec 1, 2026	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	10,615	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Jan 1, 2027	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	6,552	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Jan 1, 2028	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	87%	5,425	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Aug 1, 2027	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	2,222	Aug 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Apr 1, 2027	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	2,129	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Dec 1, 2027	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	1,548	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Nov 1, 2027	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	1,106	Nov 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Oct 1, 2027	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	71%	921	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Sep 1, 2027	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	842	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Mar 1, 2027	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	775	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Feb 1, 2027	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	691	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before May 1, 2027	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	435	May 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Jul 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	301	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
When will Databricks officially announce an IPO? · Before Jun 1, 2027	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	220	Jun 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.