What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 60¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 62% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 60%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will any US state pass a data center moratorium? on Kalshi

If a statewide moratorium, pause, or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in any U.S. state except New York before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: geography’s official government websites, ABC, the Federal Register, The Information, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, United States Congress, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, The New York Times, Semafor, Politico, relevant governmental agency in geography, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, major newspapers in geography.

Market says (typical open contract)

60%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

80% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
60¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.40	61.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will a statewide data center moratorium become law in any U.S. state except New York before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	7	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a statewide data center moratorium become law in any U.S. state except New York before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	0	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a statewide data center moratorium become law in any U.S. state except New York before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	0	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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