What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Who will be the first Republican listed to announce a 2028 presidential run? on Kalshi

If Vivek Ramaswamy is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: person, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Ballotpedia, CBS, NBC, Axios, the Federal Election Commission, The Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, The New York Times, official campaign websites or social media accounts of declared candidates, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 37 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ted Cruz be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Ted Cruz	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	450	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Ron DeSantis be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Ron DeSantis	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	371	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will John McEntee be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · John McEntee	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	206	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Glenn Youngkin be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Glenn Youngkin	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	200	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Gregory Bovino be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Gregory Bovino	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	200	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Donald J. Trump Jr.	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	187	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Chris Christie be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Chris Christie	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	115	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Thomas Massie be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Thomas Massie	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	30	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Joe Kent be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Joe Kent	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	21	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Vivek Ramaswamy	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Tim Scott be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Tim Scott	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Tulsi Gabbard be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Tulsi Gabbard	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Tom Cotton be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Tom Cotton	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Tucker Carlson be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Tucker Carlson	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Sarah Huckabee Sanders	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Spencer Pratt be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Spencer Pratt	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Steve Bannon be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Steve Bannon	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Rand Paul be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Rand Paul	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Pete Hegseth	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Nikki Haley be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Nikki Haley	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Marco Rubio be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Marco Rubio	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Mike Pence be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Mike Pence	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Marjorie Taylor Greene	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Larry Hogan be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Larry Hogan	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Katie Britt be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Katie Britt	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will J.D. Vance be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · J.D. Vance	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Jared Kushner be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Jared Kushner	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will John Kennedy be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · John Kennedy	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Josh Hawley be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Josh Hawley	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Jeff Bezos be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Jeff Bezos	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Ivanka Trump be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Ivanka Trump	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Greg Abbott be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Greg Abbott	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Elise Stefanik be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Elise Stefanik	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Doug Burgum be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Doug Burgum	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Brian Kemp be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Brian Kemp	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
Will Byron Donalds be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028? · Byron Donalds	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.