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Democratic state legislative supermajorities on Kalshi
If the number of Washington State Senate seats held by Democrats is at least 33 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: California Secretary of State, Delaware Department of Elections, Illinois State Board of Elections, New Mexico Secretary of State, Maine Secretary of State, the Maryland State Board of Elections, New York State Board of Elections, Washington Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of State, Nevada Secretary of State, Connecticut Secretary of the State, Colorado Secretary of State, Vermont Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
78%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 78¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.77 | 79.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Hawaii State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 17 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Hawaii Senate | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,289 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Vermont Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Vermont Senate | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 6,512 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Connecticut State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Connecticut Senate | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,459 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Delaware House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 25 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Delaware House | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 3,356 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Vermont House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 100 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Vermont House | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 3,315 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Connecticut House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 101 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Connecticut House | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,063 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Nevada Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 28 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Nevada Assembly | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 2,356 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of California State Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 54 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · California Assembly | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 2,314 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Delaware Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 13 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Delaware Senate | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,462 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Maryland Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 29 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Maryland Senate | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 767 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Illinois Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 36 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Illinois Senate | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 581 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Colorado House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 44 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Colorado House | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 502 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Washington House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 66 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Washington House | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 434 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Illinois House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 71 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Illinois House | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 305 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of New York State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 42 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · New York Senate | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 5 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Washington State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 33 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Washington Senate | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Oregon State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 20 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Oregon Senate | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Oregon House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 40 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Oregon House | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of New York State Assembly seats held by Democrats be at least 100 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · New York Assembly | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Nevada Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 14 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Nevada Senate | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of New Mexico House of Representatives seats held by Democrats be at least 47 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · New Mexico House | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Maine Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Maine Senate | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Colorado Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 24 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · Colorado Senate | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of California State Senate seats held by Democrats be at least 27 after the November 3, 2026 general election? · California Senate | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jan 03, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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