Markets › Kalshi › Politics
How many people will be deported in the USA? on Kalshi
If the number of ICE removals is above 425,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
84%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 83¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.60 | 84.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026? · Above 500,000 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 65,111 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026? · Above 600,000 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 51,248 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026? · Above 400,000 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 34,723 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of ICE removals be above 450000 in FY2026? · Above 450,000 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 31,298 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026? · Above 300,000 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 9,007 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026? · Above 200,000 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,529 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of ICE removals be above 425000 in FY2026? · Above 425,000 | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 3,686 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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