What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Democratic House seats won (media calls) on Kalshi

If the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 278 in the 2026 U.S. House elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, CBS News, ABC News, CNN, the Associated Press, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 262 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 262	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	47,470	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 258 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 258	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	21,098	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 254 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 254	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	19,653	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 266 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 266	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,653	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 270 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 270	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,802	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 274 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 274	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,673	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the number of U.S. House seats won by Democratic Party candidates be at least 278 in the 2026 U.S. House elections? · At least 278	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Jan 03, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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