What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Daily Diesel Price on Kalshi

If the Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 is above $6.220, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: AAA.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.155? · Above $6.155	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	27,678	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.150? · Above $6.150	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	22,345	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.160? · Above $6.160	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	21,177	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.145? · Above $6.145	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	13,812	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.170? · Above $6.170	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,067	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.175? · Above $6.175	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,012	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.165? · Above $6.165	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	5,896	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.180? · Above $6.180	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,005	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.190? · Above $6.190	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,935	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.185? · Above $6.185	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,000	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.220? · Above $6.220	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	467	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.215? · Above $6.215	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	467	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.210? · Above $6.210	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	467	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.130? · Above $6.130	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	321	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.140? · Above $6.140	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	229	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.195? · Above $6.195	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	187	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.120? · Above $6.120	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	130	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.135? · Above $6.135	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	39	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.125? · Above $6.125	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	36	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.205? · Above $6.205	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC
Will Diesel Price on November 10, 2026 be above $6.200? · Above $6.200	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.