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Disney+ app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Disney+ app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 46 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 123 ? · Above 123 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 10,571 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 46 ? · Above 46 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,005 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 63 ? · Above 63 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,273 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 114 ? · Above 114 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 6,139 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 131.5 ? · Above 131.5 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,000 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 80 ? · Above 80 | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,963 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 97 ? · Above 97 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,742 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 151 ? · Above 151 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,500 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 140.5 ? · Above 140.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 849 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 191.5 ? · Above 191.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Disney+ app downloads for November 2026 be above 163 ? · Above 163 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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