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DraftKings app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc DraftKings app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 597.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 597.5 ? · Above 597.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 500 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 229.5 ? · Above 229.5 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 500 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 194.5 ? · Above 194.5 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 200 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 421.5 ? · Above 421.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 357 ? · Above 357 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 307.5 ? · Above 307.5 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 266.5 ? · Above 266.5 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DraftKings app downloads for November 2026 be above 137 ? · Above 137 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.