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DOJ pardon claim on Kalshi
If an official filing or statement made during oral argument in a federal court proceeding (e.g. briefs, motions, memoranda, or arguments made before the court on the record) contain a statement by the Department of Justice that a pardon issued by President Joe Biden is invalid (or “void”, “unenforceable”, or equivalent) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, the Department of Justice, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, PACER, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the DOJ claim in federal court that any of President Biden's pardons are void? · Before 2027 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 18,583 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.