Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Democratic presidential primaries on Kalshi
If Wes Moore wins the 2028 Wyoming Democratic presidential nominating contest, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: US State Governments.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 621 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Kamala Harris | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,187 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Jon Ossoff | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 2,976 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Nevada Democratic primary? · Jon Ossoff | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 843 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Andy Beshear | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 444 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Gavin Newsom | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 349 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Abdul El-Sayed | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 267 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · James Talarico | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 233 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Cory Booker | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 232 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Raphael Warnock | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 210 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Vermont Democratic primary? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 200 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Mark Kelly | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 160 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · J.B. Pritzker | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 156 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Jon Stewart | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 152 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Wes Moore | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 114 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Nevada Democratic primary? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 64 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Iowa Democratic caucus? · Pete Buttigieg | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 47 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Nevada Democratic primary? · Josh Shapiro | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 20 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Pete Buttigieg | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 19 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Nevada Democratic primary? · Pete Buttigieg | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 5 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 South Carolina Democratic primary? · Ro Khanna | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Vermont Democratic primary? · Jon Ossoff | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Wes Moore | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Raphael Warnock | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Pete Buttigieg | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Mark Kelly | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Kamala Harris | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · James Talarico | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Josh Shapiro | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Jon Ossoff | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Gavin Newsom | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Abdul El-Sayed | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Wyoming Democratic caucus? · Andy Beshear | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 West Virginia Democratic primary? · Wes Moore | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 West Virginia Democratic primary? · Raphael Warnock | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 West Virginia Democratic primary? · Pete Buttigieg | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 West Virginia Democratic primary? · Mark Kelly | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 West Virginia Democratic primary? · Kamala Harris | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 West Virginia Democratic primary? · James Talarico | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 West Virginia Democratic primary? · Josh Shapiro | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 621 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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