What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Democratic Senate seats on Kalshi

If the Democratic party has exactly 56 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

3% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Democratic Party hold more than 52 seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 52	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	6,198,823	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 52 seats in the 120th Congress? · 52	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,782,004	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 51 seats in the 120th Congress? · 51	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	2,594,244	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress? · Below 45	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,052,115	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 45 seats in the 120th Congress? · 45	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	2,000,668	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 48 seats in the 120th Congress? · 48	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,920,276	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 50 seats in the 120th Congress? · 50	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,871,994	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 49 seats in the 120th Congress? · 49	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,792,956	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 46 seats in the 120th Congress? · 46	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,752,670	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party hold 47 seats in the 120th Congress? · 47	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,672,672	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · Above 56	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	61%	72,316	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 54	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	53,248	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 55 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 55	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	52,819	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 56	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	44,122	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 52 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 52	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	33,740	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 53	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	32,234	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 51 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 51	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	26,658	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 50 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 50	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	15,039	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 49 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 49	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	13,617	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 47	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	11,988	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 48 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 48	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	9,317	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · Below 45	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	6,295	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 45	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,508	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic party hold exactly 46 Senate seats in the 121st Congress? · 46	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,089	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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