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Dancing with the Stars finalists on Kalshi
If Tatyana Ali qualifies for the finale of Dancing with the Stars Season 35 after market issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 10am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC News, Disney+.
Market says (typical open contract)
88%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 89¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $0.38 | 89.7% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tatyana Ali qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? · Tatyana Ali | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 74,298 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Connor Wood qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? · Connor Wood | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 52,095 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jenna Dewan qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? · Jenna Dewan | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 43,449 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Maura Higgins qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? · Maura Higgins | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 37,056 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amber Glenn qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? · Amber Glenn | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 35,281 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ezra Frech qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? · Ezra Frech | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 32,428 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Harry Shum Jr. qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale? · Harry Shum Jr. | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 26,548 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.