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AMD earnings menti on Kalshi
If TSMC is said by any Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
76%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
48% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 76¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.84 | 77.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Healthcare | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 175 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Memory / HBM | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Inference / Inferencing | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · TSMC | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Oracle | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · OpenAI / ChatGPT | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Nvidia | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Microsoft / Azure | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Meta | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · HPC / High-Performance Computing | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Helion (3+ times) | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Frontier | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Export Restriction / Export Control | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · China | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Automotive / Automobile | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Anthropic / Claude | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Agentic AI | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | May 03, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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