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AMEX Earnings on Kalshi
If Spending Trend is said by any American Express Company representative (including the operator of the call) during the next American Express Company live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: American Express Company Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
53%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · NFL | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 146 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Platinum (3+ times) | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 143 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Spending Trend | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 36 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Amazon | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 27 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Currency | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 9 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · NII / Net Interest Income | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 5 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · OpenAI / ChatGPT | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 1 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Millennial | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Regulation / Regulatory | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Lounge | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Business Savings Account | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Blockchain | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Basel | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
| What will American Express Company say during their next earnings call? · Airbnb | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Apr 29, 13:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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