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What will Costco say on their next earnings call? on Kalshi
If Valuation is said by any Costco representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Costco live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Costco Wholesale Corporation Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
67% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 67¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.15 | 68.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Revenue | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,005 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Membership | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 647 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Inflation | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 480 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Holiday | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 391 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Renewal | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 345 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Uber / DoorDash | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 320 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Automated / Automation | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 248 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Hot Dog | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 247 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Churro | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 203 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Kirkland | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 116 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Dividend | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 40 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Gold Bar | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 35 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 20 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Expansion | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Valuation | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Iran / Middle East | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Instacart | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Google / YouTube | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · GLP-1 / GLP 1 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Cannibalization | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Costco say during their next earnings call? · Buyback / Buy Back | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 24, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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