What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 41¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.07.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 43% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 41%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Mentions

Goldman Earnings on Kalshi

If Uncertainty is said by any The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Investor Events.

Market says (typical open contract)

41%

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

82% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
41¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.07	42.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Uncertainty	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	34	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Buyback / Buy Back	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	29	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Iran / Middle East	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	22	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Tariff	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Tailwind	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · SpaceX	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Regulation	71¢	71%	1.4¢	—	58%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Recession	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Private Credit	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Pipeline	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · NEOS	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Marcus	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · LCN	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC
What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Industry Ventures	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	0	Apr 19, 14:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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