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JNJ on Kalshi
If Vaccine is said by any Johnson & Johnson representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Johnson & Johnson live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Johnson & Johnson Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
79%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
42% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 79¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.73 | 80.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Tecvayli | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 409 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Caplyta | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 408 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Procedure | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 392 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · China | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 357 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Sail Biomedicines | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 281 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Ottava | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 202 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Tariff | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 170 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Litigation | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 79 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Firefly Bio | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 70 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Rybrevant | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 48 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 22 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Halda Therapeutics | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 11 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Nipocalimab / Lupus | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 3 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Darzalex Faspro | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 2 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Vaccine | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call? · Gene Therapy | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Apr 26, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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