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PayPal Earnings on Kalshi
If Stripe is said by any PayPal Holdings, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next PayPal Holdings, Inc. live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: PayPal Holdings, Inc. Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · De Minimis | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 108 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Meta | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 13 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Biometric | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 11 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Agentic Commerce | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Stripe | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Stablecoin / Stable Coin | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Google | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Glance | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · European Payments Council / EPC | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · E-Commerce | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Cash Back / Cashback | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Braintree | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
| What will PayPal Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call? · Ads ID / Ad ID | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | May 03, 13:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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