What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 77¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 78% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 77%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Mentions

SpaceX Earnings Call on Kalshi

If Merge / Merger is said by any SpaceX representative (including the operator of the call) during the next SpaceX live earnings call or official broadcast (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: SpaceX Investor Events.

Market says (typical open contract)

77%

Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

46% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
77¢ (now)	1.2¢	$0.80	78.2%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Data Center	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	269	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Starlink	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	169	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Grok	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	155	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Starship	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	152	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Cursor	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	145	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Colossus	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	95	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · NVIDIA	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	91	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Trump	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	86	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Merge / Merger	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	79	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Moon	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	79	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Anthropic / OpenAI	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	76%	65	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Starmind	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	19%	15	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Combine / Combining	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	80%	14	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Tesla	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	11	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Starbase	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	19%	7	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · ISS / International Space Station	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	6	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · T-Mobile	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Starshield	69¢	69%	1.5¢	—	62%	0	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · NASA	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	44%	0	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Mars	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	0	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · China / Chinese	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	0	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC
What will SpaceX say during their next earnings call? · Artemis	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	0	Apr 26, 21:30 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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