What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.29.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

month over month core inflation on Kalshi

If the CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 is exactly 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

12% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly 0.2%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	13,653	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly -0.1%	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	10,313	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly 0.3%	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	67%	5,242	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly 0.3%	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	4,202	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly 0.5%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	4,132	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly 0.2%	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	3,486	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly 0.0%	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	3,081	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly 0.5%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	2,680	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly 0.4%	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	2,451	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly 0.1%	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	2,408	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly 0.4%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	2,362	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly 0.1%	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	2,129	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly -0.1%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,002	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.2%? · Exactly 0.2%	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	866	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly 0.0%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	819	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Oct 2026? · Exactly -0.2%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	729	Nov 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.3%? · Exactly 0.3%	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	670	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.1%? · Exactly 0.1%	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	460	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
CPI core month-over-month in Nov 2026? · Exactly -0.2%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1	Dec 10, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 1.0%? · Exactly 1.0%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.9%? · Exactly 0.9%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.8%? · Exactly 0.8%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.7%? · Exactly 0.7%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.6%? · Exactly 0.6%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.5%? · Exactly 0.5%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.4%? · Exactly 0.4%	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC
Will CPI core month-over-month for Dec 2026 be exactly 0.0%? · Exactly 0.0%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Jan 13, 13:29 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.