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Eerste Divisie Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Breda vs Emmen professional Eerste Divisie soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
51% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse wins · Vitesse | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 66,381 | Nov 10, 11:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 52,830 | Nov 10, 11:15 UTC |
| De Graafschap wins · De Graafschap | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 38,238 | Nov 10, 11:15 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:30 UTC |
| Emmen wins · Emmen | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:30 UTC |
| Breda wins · Breda | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 16, 15:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Helmond wins · Helmond | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Almere wins · Almere | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Oss wins · Oss | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| De Graafschap wins · De Graafschap | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Heracles Almelo wins · Heracles Almelo | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Dordrecht wins · Dordrecht | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Waalwijk wins · Waalwijk | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Den Bosch wins · Den Bosch | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Volendam wins · Volendam | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Roda wins · Roda | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Venlo wins · Venlo | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
| FC Eindhoven wins · FC Eindhoven | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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