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EFL Cup Winner on Kalshi
If Fleetwood Town is the 2026-27 EFL Carabao Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Manchester City | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 20,541 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Liverpool | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,846 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
| Will Everton win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Everton | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 2,015 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
| Will Bournemouth win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Bournemouth | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,840 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
| Will Bradford win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Bradford | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,819 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
| Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Crystal Palace | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,666 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
| Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Sunderland | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,442 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
| Will Fleetwood Town win the 2026-27 EFL Cup? · Fleetwood Town | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 664 | Apr 04, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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