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EFL Trophy Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington professional EFL Trophy soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, BBC Sport.
Market says (typical open contract)
27%
Median YES price across 42 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham wins · Cheltenham | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 8,741 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Oxford United wins · Oxford United | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 3,228 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Walsall wins · Walsall | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 2,571 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Northampton wins · Northampton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,934 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Stockport wins · Stockport | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 1,854 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Leicester wins · Leicester | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,808 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tranmere wins · Tranmere | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,800 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Plymouth wins · Plymouth | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,668 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Barnet wins · Barnet | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,537 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Mansfield wins · Mansfield | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,148 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Gillingham wins · Gillingham | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,108 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Notts wins · Notts | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 1,061 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Swindon wins · Swindon | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 839 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Burton wins · Burton | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 830 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Reading wins · Reading | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 806 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Leyton Orient wins · Leyton Orient | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 720 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 564 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Crewe wins · Crewe | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 557 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Bradford wins · Bradford | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 512 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 492 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 460 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Wigan wins · Wigan | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 438 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 323 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Milton Keynes wins · Milton Keynes | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 257 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 234 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Chesterfield wins · Chesterfield | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 190 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 190 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 167 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 102 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 98 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 34 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Bristol Rovers wins · Bristol Rovers | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 34 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| York wins · York | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 25 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 4 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 4 | Nov 12, 19:30 UTC |
| Sheffield Wednesday wins · Sheffield Wednesday | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:00 UTC |
| Accrington wins · Accrington | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:00 UTC |
| Oldham wins · Oldham | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 13, 19:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 42 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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